Game 13: NW vs MSU

Opening Thoughts

What an absolutely beautiful day for a football game for November 17.  And what an absolutely pathetic turnout. It was sickening. It was the worst turnout to a Bearcat game that I’ve ever seen. I’ve heard a couple of excuses for this. 1) the Spoofies were playing in the semi finals. Okay, well that’s across town and the game started at 1:30. The least you could do is come and watch the first half of the game and then travel all the way across town (that will take forever I know) and still make it in plenty of time for kickoff. 2) Deer Season. Well, the game kicked off at noon. Most deer hunters I know, are out of their stands by that time. So that’s a pretty poor excuse too. There was less than 4700 people in the stands to watch that game. Pathetic. The last time that there was less than that was November 5, 2005 the week after Pitt St beat up on NW at Arrowhead and NW then curbstomped Southwest Baptist on what started their march to Florence.

Last Week’s Review:

Well. So much for Harding. They were about what I was hoping. If they had any kind of passing threat they would be a very dangerous team. But they don’t. So they aren’t.

Well, I expected NW’s RB to be able to get over 100 yards rushing – I just didn’t expect that RB to be Billy Creason. Then again, I didn’t expect JF3 to go down on the first play of the game. From what I’ve heard, JF3’s injury was a hip pointer and a ‘side stinger’. A big S/O to the offensive line. They opened up some huge holes for Creason and Kohlman Adema-Schulte (KAS) to run thru. Billy and KAS both did a very good job – they both run with lots of power and finish their runs strong. I am always impressed with how fast KAS is. I didn’t realize that Creason had gone over the century mark until after the game and I looked at the box scores. It didn’t seem like it in the game. Both Creason and KAS are really good backs and are great in their roles – but neither have that special “it” factor that J5 or JF3 do – but not many do. I really think that Creason would probably start at a lot of D2 schools. The OL gave TA a lot of time in the back field to make decisions. I thought that this was truly one of his better games – he seems to continually be getting better and better. Still makes the occasional bone-head move, but what college kid doesn’t? As good as the OL has played, they have made some errors the last couple of games – namely some big time holds and false starts. TE Joel Gantz needs to working on his blocking technique some – he got called on it once this week, and a bunch last week. But like AD said in an interview – what one ref calls a hold another will call a block. I don’t think he’s doing anything different than he has all year, it’s just that a ref was calling him on it. The WR’s did a fair job – but they had several dropped balls that they should have caught. Outside of Shaw, there wasn’t a WR that really stepped up in this game, hopefully one really steps it up against Mankato. Statistically NW’s offense did a pretty good job – putting up 179 yards of offense on one of the ‘best’ rushing defenses in the nation and 212 yards in the air. But, maybe I’m alone in this – but it just seemed to me like the offense never really got going – despite putting up 35 points. Credit Harding’s defense for part of that, they were really quick, and didn’t allow for a lot of things to develop, they also made some pretty good adjustments. NW was also without their two starting backs – which obviously changed the game plan. I don’t know, I just kind of felt a little bit frustrated that NW wasn’t able to do what they had been capable of doing in the past.

Defense. Well – it worked. It’s not exactly how I would defend the option, but hard to argue when they come out of it with a shut out.  Most of the game I found myself being very befuddled and confused at the personnel packages, and the coverage. I truly did not understand why your CB’s and Safeties 10 yards off the line of scrimmage, and your LB’s 7-8 when there is no chance that they are going to throw. I thought that NW gave up a ton more yardage than they could have. As we were walking out, my friend Joel looked at me and said – well it worked, I’d rather give up yards than points. Since the game I’ve come to realize a few things. Most of Hardings RB’s were a threat to take the ball to the house any time they touched it, so I think NW’s defensive scheme was that they were going to force them to have to execute 10-15 play drives to score; knowing that an option offense is dependent on being very efficient to be effective. Harding wasn’t able to sustain that – as evidenced by their opening drive. There was a TON of substitution along Dline. There were times in the second and third quarter when it was still a game, that there were all 2’s & 3’s along the line – not a single starter. That goes a long ways in building confidence and experience not to mention keeping everyone fresh! It was great to see Brandon Dixon finally get another interception – since his last one was stolen away from him at Washburn. Defense wins Championships, and if the D keeps it up, they can put this team in the position to be in the hunt!

This Week’s Match Up:

I will be completely honest with you – I really don’t know that much about Minnesota St – Mankato. I’ve spent the last several days pouring over stats and reading what I can, and it all leads me back to where I started, I really don’t know that much about them. But what I do know about is the Bearcats.

The Mankato Mavericks defense is pretty darn good – not great, but good. Statistically their rush D is a little bit better than Hardings was, but I would actually believe theirs a little bit more. Historically NW has done a pretty good job rushing against the northern teams – even the Duluth teams with their amazing D, NW was able to run against them (the play calling didn’t allow it, but it was always there, and NW was able to gain good yardage when they did run.) I’ve heard that Jordan Simmon and JF3 have both practiced this week – I’m really surprised about J5, I thought that they would let that heal for another week. I still wouldn’t be surprised if he suits up but doesn’t play unless absolutely necessary. I’ve heard that JF3 was in a lot of pain at the beginning of the week, but a lot of things can change in a week. I’m sure that they are giving him the strongest pain meds that they can, and at this point it is just a pain management issue. I think both Billy Creason and KAS will see action in this game with JF3 and BC seeing the majority of the reps. I really don’t think that their defense will have seen anybody with the speed of Shaw – this opens some possibilities. If they try to double cover, that opens up somebody else to have a big day. If they don’t, that means that he will have a big day. From what I’ve been told, if the Mav’s have a weak spot, it their pass D. NW needs to exploit this. Use the pass game to open up the run game. That means that somebody other than Shaw is going to have to have a good day catching the ball. It’s been a while since Young’s injury, I’m hoping he will be able to return a bit more to action. Hinchey possibly stepping up would be nice too.  The offensive line is going to have to have a big game – not just blocking and opening up holes, but eliminating the stupid penalties! Those have got to go! They are drive killers and we’ve already seen them bite NW in the butt once.

On Defense, Rich Wright knows what they need to do – much better than I could ever pretend to know.  In the games that the Screaming Eagles, er I mean the Mavericks had the most troubles it was because their run game was limited. Other than against the option, NW has a good track record of being able to limit a run game. Ken Gordon does a pretty darn good job putting together packages to limit the passing game too via the Dixon Bros & Co. The Mavs are a fairly balanced team, but they do prefer to run the ball a bit more than they throw. They have one primary WR that they like to throw to, Adam Theilen, but they spread the ball out more than Harding did – but that doesn’t take much! They have several guys that like to run the ball, including the QB. But I have faith that NW will be able to contain them.

I think that NW has the advantage when it comes to special teams. Goodburn has been amazing punting all year, and Adolf too in both KO and field goals.

Overall I am completely conflicted. My head tells me that we should win this one. That the Mavs are a good team, but nothing spectacular. NW has the better overall athletes and the more experience. The Mavs have some really good stats, and I believe their stats more than Harding stats, but at the same time, I think that the NSIC was a bit down this year. Yeah Mankato beat the heck out of Upper Iowa a few weeks ago, but the two weeks prior to that they struggled with Wayne (Ne) and Sioux Falls. They beat the weaker teams, but anybody that wasn’t a complete pushover, they struggled with. But at the same time, I never overlook an NSIC team – they play tough hard nosed football. So I’m conflicted. If NW plays the way that they can and doesn’t kill themselves with stupid penalties and turnovers, NW wins by 14.

NW 35 MSU 21