Game 7: NW vs PSU

So Saturday was a beautiful day for a football game. A little chilly in the morning, but by gametime it ended up being absolutely gorgeous.  I thought that the patriotic theme was very cool. In fact, I thought that the patriot decal on the helmet looked even better this year with the faux paw logo than it did last year with the classic paw. I also liked the giant flag during the National Anthem – however, the fact that the flag was lying on the ground prior to it being unfolded was an absolute disgrace and violation of the US Flag Code. I know myself and many of the veterans around me were visibly upset with that.

Last Week’s Recap:

Northwest won. By a lot. And UCO lost – by a lot. It has been a very long time since I have seen a defense as bad as UCO’s was. It was so bad, that TA was actually checking down a couple of times – it’s been a while since we’ve seen that. Adams actually had a really really good game. It was the type of game I truly hope that TA would have every game. The Bearcats put up video game type stats – 323 yards rushing , and 364 yards passing.  NW averaged 7 yards per rush, and had two RBs (Burton & Jackson) each averaged over 10 yards per carry. Four different receivers had 48 yards or more of receiving. I think that is what makes this offense so special – it truly is a team. There isn’t any individual star: no Omon, Council, Soy, Simmons or Shaw. But the whole is definitely greater than the sum of its parts.

As far as the defense goes: Bravo. Coming into this game, UCO was averaging 494 yards of offense per game, and NW held them to 297: almost 200 less than normal. NW held the Broncos to only 2.1 yards per carry. 229 of those yards came in the passing game, over half of those yards came on 3 plays. The first of those big plays happened when Brandon Dixon was tripped up by that terrible turf monster – yet still managed to make the tackle.  I was very impressed with their Redshirt Freshman QB – considering his offensive line gave him absolutely no time what so ever. They also had a couple of good wide receivers. They are definitely getting better on that side of the ball.

This Week’s Game

I am actually worried about this match up. Not because I think Pitt is a superior team – in fact just the opposite. I’m worried about this game, because I’m not worried about this game. And whenever that happens, it is always a much closer game than I had expected. Overall, I’m not that impressed with this Pitt St team. They do have some really really good players (John Brown) on the team, but overall – they don’t scare me. Statistically they compare almost identical to Northwest. But to me the biggest difference is that while NW didn’t play their starters after the first half of the last four games, Pitt St left their starters in well into the 3rd and even 4th quarters. That doesn’t quite make it comparable. They also struggled early on with Lincoln and Southwest Baptist. So my gut says not to worry about Pitt St. But my head says that Pitt St is a rival, and they always play NW tough, despite how they’ve played others; and vice versa.

As with most battles, the war is won or lost in the trenches. This will probably be the biggest test for NW’s offensive line to date. If the Oline is able to get a good push and open some holes for the runners and give the QB some time, I really like NW’s chances to win the game. But ultimately I think this game will come down to QB play. Which TA will show up? The one from the past couple of weeks, or the one from the past two UCM games and MSU game? If the TA that likes to play catch with the defense shows up, I don’t know if Bolles would be able to pull NW out of the hole again. As a Bearcat fan, I truly hope that the really good TA shows up, I just have very little faith that that will happen. This game usually comes down to a single score, and NW cannot afford to turn the ball over. That goes out to TA, but it also goes to the rest of the team. Pitts secondary has been suspect at times – so there is the possibility of some big plays deep. Pitt does have some very good LB’s. In addition to Nate Dreiling, Tyler Disney has become a yin to his yang. As far as Pitts rush D – I really can’t say since I haven’t watched them play myself. Statistically they have definitely held some teams in check – but others not so much. And those teams that they’ve held, are not known for their running game. Against UCO they gave up 237 yards, NW gave up 68. The other two like opponents (NSU and UCM) the stats were pretty much identical.

On defense, those boys are going to have their hands full. The Dline is a little dinged up – Meinert hurt his shoulder I think (imagine that, Meinert hurt – shocking I know) and Bevins sprained his ankle. But I don’t think that either will sit out this game. This is going to be a big game for the DE’s. NW has struggled at time containing the run on the edge. If NW is able to seal the edge, that will definitely help out the rest of the defense. Pitts main runner is Jeff Seybold – he is averaging 6.7 ypc and has 11 rushing TD’s this year. Their QB, Anthony Abenoja is not the dual threat runner like past Pitt QB’s. That said, he is still their second leading rusher. Pitts biggest and scariest weapon is John Brown. We all know what Brown can do. He is one of the most talented WR’s I’ve ever personally seen in D2. But, NW has Brandon Dixon – who is probably the best CB I’ve ever personally seen in D2 – other than maybe Brandon Carr. But Dixon vs Brown, Brown may still have an edge – but when you add in NW’s safeties of Manning and particularly Enyard: I like NW’s chances of limiting Brown. I don’t think that they are going to shut him down by any means, but I think that they will be able to limit him. But Brown isn’t Pitts only WR – they also have a couple of other talented WR’s, namely Gavin Lutman.

These games usually come down to Special Teams. NW has had some very good special teams play so far this year – blocked punts, blocked field goals, blocked extra points etc. NW has also had some blocked kicks of their own. NW’s kicker seems to have a very strong leg, but he doesn’t get the ball up in the air very quick – which allows it to get blocked from time to time. NW has also given up some big returns, and kicking off to John Brown is always a dangerous feat. If NW Special Teams continue to be as much of a weapon as they have been this season – I think the advantage has to go to NW.

Overall – I think that this is going to be a really fun game to watch. The weather appears to be perfect and neither team is too banged up that I know of. My guess is that this will be a close game, with NW coming out on top: NW 45 Pitt 35


#freeBolles