Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Game 15: NW vs LR

I don’t know about you guys, but our tailgate was awesome! The “TJ & Dude Sweatlodge” was standing room only again this week. It was quite literally hot inside the enclosed canopies.  I spent about an hour or so outside of the canopies before the game acclimating to the weather. I was much more prepared for the weather this week, than I was last week. After last week’s game I went out and got some new boots to keep my feet warm – and they worked! I was not cold at all this game, I have a feeling I was in the minority. But it’s only fitting that a semi-final game be good and cold!

Last Week’s Recap:

This game was a classic example of Piss Poor Preparation = Piss Poor Performance. Unfortunately, I think that the piss poor performance was probably subconscious in nature. I also think that the cause was probably the fact that the starting quarterback was not there the entire week to practice and game plan with. Trevor was in New York receiving the prestigious scholar athlete award from the National Football Foundation along with Coach T and President Jazz. Now don’t get me wrong, as far as I know Trevor Adams had no choice in deciding whether or not he was going, so we can’t blame him. I don’t know if there really is anyone to blame, other than maybe the NFF for planning an event while active seasons for every division except for the BC$ was still in play. But to think that having the primary signal caller not available doesn’t affect the rest of the team, is just silly. I think that it sent a message to the rest of the team that total focus wasn’t needed to prepare for Grand Valley.  I don’t think that anyone – players or coaches – would have said that it was happening at the time, but that’s the thing with subconscious behavior: you can’t quantify it, observe it, or really even stop it. The entire first half the offense was not crisp, and was killing themselves. It wasn’t like the UCM game where they were getting stopped,  NW was just killing themselves with turnovers.

On offense, it was the tail of two halves.  Northwest could not get their offense to ‘click’ in the first half. The unforced turnovers were killers. TA’s first pass that was a lateral pass was way behind Reuben Thomas. TA did a great job of getting over to the ball and tackling the ball carrier. I think that he probably saved a TD there. I had visions of the MoWest playoff game dancing in my head. But TA shook that one off but then fumbled a few series later on a QB sneak on like the 1 yard line. Korey Jackson did a great job of chasing down and tackling the GV player who had picked up the ball and was on his way to the endzone.  I think that the coaches did a great job of switching up QB’s when needed. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a 2 QB system work as well as it did this game: well, with the exception of the ACU playoff game in 2008 with Joel and Blake.  The second half was a different story. They scored on every possession except for one. NW punted on that possession despite being 4th and less than one on the GV 43. The offensive line looked very discouraged that they weren’t even allowed to line up and try or even have the QB do a pooch punt. I don’t know if I agree with AD’s choice on that one – but I understand it: GV had just scored and you don’t want to give them the chance of gaining even more momentum. The offensive line did a spectacular job of protecting the QB again this week. They also did great opening holes for the runners. Speaking of runners: Billy Creason had one of his best games ever – not in total yardage, but great plays at the right time. Phil Jackson had another good game. Bobby Burton seems to have disappeared the past couple of weeks. I don’t know if he is dinged up a little, or just REALLY doesn’t like the cold. Receivers: wow. Reuben Thomas just continues to impress, not to mention that Korey Jackson had one of his best games as a Bearcat. Bryce Young and JaJo both did a great job with their chances as well they both did a great job of down field blocking. If the offense had been clicking in the first half like they did the second half, the game would not have even been close.

On defense, the Bearcats did a pretty darn good job.  Grand Valley was the first team to score on their first possession since Saginaw Valley.  And that is because they started at the NW 17 – GV actually ended up with a net -3 yards on that drive, but still managed a FG.  Overall the D did a good job. You know you have a good defense when you are frustrated that they didn’t do better, but managed to stifle a very good offense and only allowed 13 points.  The Dline did a pretty good job of disrupting Parling. Longacre looked like a man among boys out there. The GV offense was able to get a pretty good push at times. Collin Bevins was able to play a couple of downs, but he didn’t look too comfortable out there. I think that he had hurt his ankle on one of the first plays. So when he was hobbling off the field, I am hoping that was because of his ankle, and not because he had hurt his knee any more. He will definitely be needed next week if he is able to play. The linebackers did a good job again. I’ve been watching Cody Matthewson a lot lately, and he continues to just get better all the time. For the most part, the secondary did a good job. The officials weren’t helping them out at all. They were allowing the receiver to do all kinds of pushoffs but if the defender even slightly touched the receiver, they were flagged.  The Dixons both had a really bad day. Brandon has not been at his best the past few weeks. It’s almost like ever since he got his invite to the NFLPA Senior Bowl he has lost a lot of focus. My guess the problem this game was from a combination of things: not wanting to get flagged, mental snowball, and the cold. I think that the cold really affected these Florida boys, I already mentioned the officials being flag happy, and when the troubles started, I think it became more of a mental thing than anything.  The GV quarterback was definitely going right after Brandon Dixon. The thing is, it wasn’t like he was getting burned or anything. He was all over the receiver, step for step, he was turning around in time and seeing the ball, but for some reason he wasn’t going up after the ball. It wasn’t like Parling was throwing bullets out there, he was literally throwing jump balls for his receivers. Like I said, Brandon was right there with the receiver, turned around and saw the ball, but just didn’t jump up and go after the ball. It was very frustrating because I know that Brandon is a better CB than what we saw on Saturday. But he is human and everyone has a bad game from time to time. In fact, he did a pretty good job for most of the game, but just had a couple of series that he didn't do well at all. I think it got in his head and just kind of snowballed on him. Bryce Enyard had one of the most amazing break ups that I've ever seen, saving a TD. Enyard came bareling across the field and literally knocked the ball out WR's hands. I don't know where he came from, but I think I heard a sonic boom when the play was over. The entire Bearcat defense was not good in their tackling. They weren’t arm tackling, which is a good thing, but they were tackling very high which was allowing GV to get extra yards after initial contact. That is going to need to change before next week!

Special Teams: What is going on with the NW kick off recovery coverage? It has been pretty bad lately. Teams are obviously seeing a weakness and exploiting it. At one point and time on Saturday I would have been in favor of just kicking the ball out of bounds and giving GV the ball at the 35 as that would have been better field position than what they had been getting.  Ever since the fake punts from UMD, NW has not been going after the punter much.

Next Week’s Game:

So I’ve watched several of Lenoir-Rhynes games so far. They are not as bad of a team as some people may be expecting. LR runs a triple option offense – the last three games that NW has faced a triple option offense: NW has outscored them 116-21. But LR is not MoSo or Harding. From what I’ve seen, they have much better skill players but their OL is not as good as Harding’s was. They also appear to have a better defense than either of those teams. The offense needs to come out hitting on all cylinders – rather than the sputtering that they did the first half last week. If the O can score on their first couple of drives and the D can prevent them from scoring – then the Bears will be in a world of hurt as a triple option offense is not designed to come from behind very well. I watched all three of the LR playoff games: against Carson Newman, UNA, and West Chester. Carson Newman runs an option offense as well, so their offense doesn’t compare well, and the West Chester game was a muddy mess, so that doesn’t compare well either. The UNA game the field was very wet to and was just starting to get muddy – so that definitely affected their playing, but their offense was the closest thing to the NW offense of the three games  I watched.  UNA was able to score 39 points on their D, despite the fact that their offense was hindered by the field conditions. UNA did a good job of bringing in a backup QB to use as a running QB – they had a lot of success doing that. Hopefully that carries over for NW as well.

The Bears defense is not very big, but they are fast and tough. They do a really good job of tackling. From what I saw, nobody was able to consistently stuff the ball down their throats.  But when they D was spread out protecting the pass, then the QB was able to get yards running. They also seemed susceptible to the play action pass. If the coaches play it right, it could be a quite fun game to watch – but if they don’t, the LR defense is good enough to frustrate the NW offense.  A lot will depend on how TA plays; if TA has a good game, and we can mix things up with Bolles – it will be a good day to be a Bearcat. The Bears defense can get very aggressive at times, and can get burned doing it. If NW is able to pick up the blitzes, NW can get some good yards off of short passes and runs. I am anxious to see how Bobby Burton plays. I know that he has been battling turf toe for a large part of the season. The past few weeks since it has gotten really cold, RB3 has not been playing a whole lot.  I don’t know if it is his foot that is bothering him, or just the cold; or maybe the cold is really affecting the turf toe. I don’t know, but it looks like it is going to be a lot warmer in Florence than it has been the past few weeks.  Billy Creason had a great performance last week, and Phil Jackson is looking to continue to build a name for himself. Clint Utter is expected to return this week. He probably could have played if needed last week, but the GV secondary wasn’t scary enough to require him to play. I expect to see him have some big plays from Utter as well as Reuben Thomas will be as dangerous as ever. I’ve said it multiple times, but the NW receivers corps is super talented and deep. You never know who is going to be the hot target: Thomas, Utter, Young, Jackson, JaJo, etc? I would really really like to see the TE get more involved in the pass game – Marcus Wright seems to do a dang good job whenever he is thrown to. Hopefully he will get involved early and often!  Ultimately its going to come down to the play of the Offensive Line.  They have done a great job all year of protecting the QB and opening up holes. They have one more game, let’s hope that they can continue their performance.

Well, they say that defense wins Championships: this is a perfect opportunity to prove that right. This game is all about playing sound gap assignment football. Northwest is very good at that. They may be one of the best in the nation at doing that.  The LB’s and the DL is going to have their hands full. As long as everyone does their job,  they should be able to limit LR’s offense. I have a feeling this game is going to be a lot like the Harding game. NW gave up a ton of yards, but no points. I would not be surprised to see LR be able to get some drives going, but they will eventually stall before they get to the endzone. I will gladly trade TD’s with FG’s. My guess is that since LR doesn’t throw the ball (they literally have only thrown the ball 94 times this season, current QB has only thrown it 6 times) the CB’s and Safeties will be used a lot to stop the run. The entire DL is going to have to play very good. Like I said earlier, the LR skill players are VERY good, but their OL is not the best. That will help the NW line be able to disrupt their option game.  I don’t know if the Bears have seen a defense any where close to as good as NW’s.  I don’t’ know what the status of Bevins is, but I really hope that he can play. He does an excellent job blowing up these types of offenses. I am sure that he will give it his all, as he knows that he has all offseason to heal up.

Special Teams: NW has got to do something about their kickoff coverage. The last couple of weeks it has just been bad. Also, I would like to see the Bearcats be aggressive again on punt blocks. They have hardly gone after them like they did earlier.

Overall, I think that the NW D is going to be too much for the LR Bears. I think that the Bears will be able to slow down the NW offense – but not a whole lot. NW wins this one big 38-10.

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