Opening Thoughts:
Great Googily Moogily. I thought Texas was supposed to be warm! Other than Kingsville, I've never been to a PO game in Texas that wasn't cold. And even the Kingsville game the locals were blaming us for bringing the cold weather down. I had been watching the weather all week, it started out in the 70's and windy. By Friday night they were calling for 37mph sustained winds with gusts up to 49. I don't think it ended up being quite that bad, but I would say that there was definitely sustained winds of around 30mph with gusts higher. We got to the stadium 2 hours before kickoff and it was windy and rainy - which was miserable. A quick trip to Wally World allowed me to get some much needed gear - since I left all of mine in KC because there was like a 5% chance of precipitation all day. Uff Da. Luckily by kickoff the rain had stopped and the wind was drying off everything. There were at least 3 LSC head coaches in attendance at the game. Obviously MSU's, but I know that Will Wagner made the trip up from Angelo and at one point I saw Chris Thompson from ACU standing behind me in the bleachers.
Last Week's Recap:
The heart attack Cats are back. The similarities to last years team are amazing - having to come from behind in the first two rounds of the playoffs - only to play a fellow MIAA opponent in the Regional Championship. Lets hope that the Bearcats can dispose of the Gorillas the same way that they did the Mooles last year. We'll get to that in a bit, but first lets break down last week's game.
The wind played a huge factor in NW's play calling. Because of the wind, neither teams could pass very much this game was played primarily on the ground. The Bearcats rushed almost twice as many times as they threw the ball (47-25) and I honestly didn't think that they threw the ball that many times! Thru the first quarter I was thinking that it could easily be a game where the team with the ball last was going to win. Each team was able to drive on each other seemingly at will. Then the MSU made some adjustments in the second quarter, and NW wasn't able to do much on a couple of their drives. The third quarter wasn't any better as their 4 possessions of the 3rd quarter ended in fumble, downs, interception, and downs. But then the 4th quarter arrived, and MSU fell victim to the same thing that NW did at Arrowhead. Coming into this game, the MSU defense hadn't really had to play a complete game. They blew everyone out of the water, so their starters were done playing in the 3rd quarter. By the time the 4th quarter rolled around, the MSU D was completely gassed, and the NW O moved the ball at will. The O had some players that really stepped up. Franklin has continued to impress - especially after Simmons hurt his hand in the first quarter. Soy is continuing to play thru some major pain. I think my Offensive MVP has got to go to Kyle Kilgore. Kyle has really flourished with Trevor Adams @ QB who seems to throw to him more often than BC did. Not a knock on BC, just an observation.
I know its rather cliché - but what a tale of two halves. In the first quarter, the NW D couldn't do anything to stop the Mustangs. I do not know enough about Defense to be able to pinpoint what exactly the changes were at half, but I do know that whatever Rich Wright did - worked. I do know that the DE's did a much better job of sealing off the outside and funneling everything to the inside. I do need to give some major props to the MSU offensive line. They were some big boys and they weren't of the slow variety either. The entire line did an amazing job of blocking, I was VERY impressed with their skills. And the Mustangs RB Keidrick Jackson is the real deal. When was the last time that a RB ran up 184 yards against the NW D? I'll tell you: September 3, 2005 - Jamar Day from UNO put up 188 yards. My MVP for the D would be split between DJ Gnader and Matt Longacre - and they are both RS Freshman. Two young guys stepping up big in the PlayOffs. That's Bearcat Football!!
This Weeks Matchup:
Well, here we are again. I can guarantee you that this is exactly where the players wanted to be the day after the Arrowhead game. They want revenge, and they want it bad. And there is nothing better than extracting that revenge in the Jungle, on the Gorillas home field.
Since we've all seen PSU play, writing this one is just as difficult as writing the pregame against MoWest. The NW Offense is not quite the same as it was the first time that these two met. Going into the first meeting, the NW offense was flying high - scoring an average of 65 points per game. Northwest has not been as explosive the last few weeks - but there have been some good reasons for that. Particularly the past two games have been played in wind tunnels, thereby severely limiting the passing game. There have also been some injuries. Jake Soy is still nursing his ankle and Tyler Shaw's foot is getting better but it still isn't 100%. Those are two very potent weapons that have been on the shelf for a while. Bryce Young has been on KO return team the past few weeks, and while he is good - he isn't quite as dynamic as Shaw is. Blake Christopher is injured as far as I know. I saw him in Wichita Falls playing catch in the parking lot, but he did not even dress at the game. JF3 is not nearly the same player that he was going into the first meet up. Prior to the game at Camarrohead JF3 had primarily played in mop up duty, now he is an integral part of the offense. The Bearcat offense now relies a little bit more on the run, and not as much on the pass. That is usually a good thing when it comes this time of the year. I would not be surprised to see a conservative offense, but at the same time they might come out firing. This will be the first game in a while that isn't being played in extreme windy conditions. As of right now, the forecast is calling for a cold rainy game. That could make for an interesting game plan.
The defense too is not quite the same as they were on October 1st. They are playing on a much higher level than they were at that time. In the first game, it was the NW D that was being worn down in the second half - now they are the ones that are doing the wearing down. I don't want to take away from Pitt State's offensive line, as they are good - but I think the the NW D saw the best Oline in the nation last week. One thing that the NW D is going to have to do is trust the Dline and LB's to stop the run. Last time the secondary was very anxious to come up in run support, and that allowed Pitts WR's to be able to get the needed separation. I am still not sold on Zac Dickey's arm. Yes he's completed a good percentage this year, but I truly believe that he played the game of his career the first time. I really don't think he has the ability to do that again. The D is going to have to get some pressure on Dickey and disrupt his rhythm. If they do that, and are able to stop or at least slow down the run, I like NW's chances.
Special teams have been big lately, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them play a vital role in this game as well. Its been a while, but I wouldn't put it past NW to score on a KO or punt return. My prediction for this game: NW 42 PSU 38
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