Nov 5: #3 NW Bearcats vs MoWest Griffons

Opening Thoughts:
            The football season is way too short to miss a game. Even if it is a long roadtrip, you have to go. You never know what you’re going to miss. I for one did miss this very strange game. I did get to see the game online, but you lose so much by not being there. And now this week is one of my favorite weeks of the year – the MoWest week. I hate me some Griffons, and there is nothing more fun than seeing the Bearcats stomp a mud puddle in them.

Last Weeks Recap:
            What a funky game. I don’t know if it was the play calling or if MoSo defense is that good, but the NW offense looked horrid out there. They looked very uninspired. When I saw them out there, the first thing I thought about was that this was going to be a trap game. They had that huge win last week against Washburn, and next week they play MoWest. It was just not a good game. Prior to the game, if you had said that NW was going to be limited to less than 300 yards total offense I would have called you a liar – let alone tell me that they would score 52 points I would have laughed in your face. In fact, I still don’t totally believe it.
            Offensively, it was a hot mess out there. I don’t know where the heck Soy was this game. I was forced to watch this game online and the camera vantage point was not that good. From what I understand is that the Lions were doubling up on Soy – so he only got thrown to twice, both of which were incomplete. Normally that would open up Shaw or one of the other WR’s. Well, Shaw was injured on the second kickoff of the game. I’m not sure the status of Shaw’s injury, but my guess is that he will probably be out a week or 2, if not more depending on the injury. I don’t think Hinchey even made the trip, but I could be wrong. So that takes 3 of the primary receivers out of the game. Kind of explains why NW got all of 131 yards receiving. BC was injured in the 3^rd quarter with a knee injury. It looked to me like a MoSo lineman got blocked into and rolled onto his knee. I heard he was walking on the sideline during the game, but he still could be out for a while. My initial reaction to the NW playcalling was that they were bound and determined to run the ball and not throw. But looking at the stat sheets, NW didn’t really throw the ball that much less than they normally do. It is just that the receptions weren’t for as long as normal and the receiving percentage was really low. The fact that there was a pretty nasty cross wind didn’t help anything. NW didn’t do too bad running the ball. It was their lowest output of the year so far – only 167 yards on the ground. I think two things caused that – MoSo having a good rush D, and not having the passing option to help open up the run game. Yet they still managed to average 5.4 yards per carry. I’ll take that any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. Simmons looked great  out there running the ball. What impressed me was the way that MoSo was able to stop JF3. He managed to only run for 38 yards, but lost 14, so he netted the day at only 24 – very uncharacteristic. I think that is the word that sums up this game the most – uncharacteristic. That and weird. It was just an overall weird game.
            Defensively, the Bearcats didn’t do too bad at all. In fact, they held an offense that had been averaging over 450 yards per game, to only 302 yards. That’s not to shabby in my opinion. But there is always room for improvement. The run D did their job, only allowing 106 yards – most of which were QB scrambles. The secondary didn’t do quite as well – giving up 196 yards. I think the Northwest Cornerbacks have been the weak link in the D as long as I’ve been watching, even when NW D was one of the best in the nation. And this year, not having the pass rush that they’ve had in the pass, only exacerbates that weakness. When I looked at the rankings, I was amazingly unimpressed that the NW D ranks 107 in pass defense. That is not good. But stats don’t tell the whole story. I think the more important stat is that NW ranks #20 in the nation in scoring D – averaging giving up only 19 points per game. And considering they have the #1 offense in the nation, that more than makes up for it.

This Weeks Match up:
            Jerry’s kid. Jerry’s kid. Jerry’s kid. You know that that chant will be in full force this weekend. I really don’t know what to think about this game. On paper, NW should win this one. But games aren’t played on paper – and when it comes to rivalry games, all stats can be thrown out the window. You add to that, the fact that NW is dealing with some injuries, and that all adds up to a big bag of question marks. But I will do my best to break this matchup down.
            It is really quite amazing to me the affects of losing your deep threat WR to injury is. During the MoSouth game, when Shaw went down that dramatically changed the game – I would contend more than losing BC did. Having that deep threat automatically commits the safety to staying back and helping the CB cover. By not having him, that safety can come up and help everyone else out. The good news is - from what I’ve heard - Tyler Shaw did not break any bones in his foot. So it is primarily a matter of pain management. It’s amazing what was a shot of cortisone and some good ole natural adrenaline will do for pain. That being said, I’m not convinced that NW needs Shaw to beat MoWest and/or Emporia. I would much rather him rest the foot and let it heal completely and have it ready for the PO’s. And if NW wins out, and with a little luck (in the form of PSU or MSU losing) NW could still get a bye week. Which would give Shaw another week to heal. I’ve heard that BC didn’t tear anything in his knee, that it is just a sprain – which means he is probably out 2-3 weeks. So that falls in that same timeframe. I know that Chad Kilgore is also nursing a sprain in his foot, as well as an injury to his elbow sustained in the Southern game. I’ve been told that the trainers are working on his elbow to get the swelling to go down. If I know Chad, he would love one more chance to beat down the Griff’s. With Shaw being out, this is the perfect opportunity for some of the younger receivers to step up. I’m expecting Bryce Young, Clint Utter, or even Taylor Pierce to come up big. Young was initially in the 2 deep before the season started, but a hamstring injury dropped him. I believe that that has healed itself, and it is now time for him to shine. He looked real good in the Spring Game, but that game doesn’t always translate. From a statistical point of view, St Joe is kind of middle of the pack in the MIAA. They are #4 in the conference in rushing defense, giving up 124.7 yards per game, and in the pass D they are #5 giving up 233.9 yards per game. The MoWest Dline has named themselves Murders Row. They are currently leading the conference with 33 sacks, but MoSo is second with 29 and the NW line only allowed 1 last week. The thing that concerns me the most is the fact that they are leading the MIAA (and #5 in the nation) in passes intercepted – with 17 so far this year.  Trevor Adams, despite having an amazing QB rating, has thrown 5 interceptions so far this year. I think a lot will depend on how much contact the refs allow between the WR & DB’s. If you remember, last year in the PO’s the first half the DB’s were mauling the NW receivers, and NW wasn’t able to do much. But in the second half, the refs started calling some interference and the Griffons were forced to play fair and the Bearcat WR’s ate them for breakfast.
            From a defensive point of view, this may be a battle. These two teams always seem to play their best when they play each other. I guess that is what rivalries are all about.  MoWest comes into this game with the #13 rushing offense in the nation – averaging 235.9 yards per game (NW is right behind them with 232.8) The MoWest backfield is lead by Michael Hill, who is currently averaging over 108 yards per game.  But unlike NW who has a pretty formidable passing game (300 yards per game) MoWest is near the bottom in the MIAA, averaging only 173 yards per game. This is almost the exact same set up as the Arrowhead game. And we all know how that one turned out. This will be a good game to judge the improvement of the secondary.  In the PSU game, NW was bound and determined to make Pitt State beat them thru the air. I wonder if NW will take that same approach to MoWest. The secondary will need to be able to trust the line and LB’s that they will stop the run. If they try to come up and support the run D too early, Jerry’s kid may be able get it to his receivers. But he is currently only completing 55% of his passes this year. But if those passes are deep, it won’t bode well for the Cats.
            I can guarantee you one thing before this game ever gets started: there is going to be a lot of jawing between the players, and probably lots of penalties. MoWest is the most penalized team in the conference, averaging over 81 yards of penalties per game. Emotions will run high, and could get to be a dirty game. The weather may very well be a factor in this game. I just hope that NW can get out of therewithout any injuries and a win. My prediction is NW wins this one 52 – 28.


Interesting Facts/Statistics:

·         The top three scorers in the MIAA are still Simmons (96), Adolf (88), Franklin (84)

·         Both NW QB’s would be at the top of the NCAA passing efficiency ratings, but neither have started 75% of the games

·         NW has 16 players that have 20 or more tackles this season