Nov 12: #9 NW Bearcats Vs Emporia Hornets

Opening Thoughts:

     I realize that MoWest is not accustomed to big games. And I know that the NW vs MoWest game is a heated rivalry. But from a logistical point of view, that game was quite a cluster ****. I do have to give MoWest a little bit of props – two years ago the rent-a-cop security guards spent their whole day harassing the tailgaters. To their credit, they didn’t do that this week. But that is about where the good stuff comes to an end. Two years ago there were a bunch of port-o-poopers all around the tailgating area, yet this year there was only 1. I know that that is not something to be real upset about, but it just adds to the entire experience. I’m not sure what MoWest expected to happen, but I think that they had the entire St Joe police force there, including the SWATabago, just incase it happened. They did make a wise decision to move the band, who was originally going to be behind the NW bench – I think that was more for the bands well being than NW’s. Oh well. I guess if NW had won the game I probably could have overlooked these things, but as it is it just ticks me off all the more!

Last Weeks Recap:

     Will the real NW team please stand up? I don’t get this team. Which is the real team, the team that destroyed Washburn, Central, etc or the team that struggled the second half of Pitt, all of MoSo and MoWest? If it’s the latter, NW will probably be one and done in the PO’s. If it’s the former, they have all the potential to make a deep run. I’m really confused. It seems to me like the overall athletic talent on O is one of the best, yet they don’t seem to have that spark that some of the other teams did. But it can come on in an instant, we’ve all seen that happen!

     I don't know what I can say about the NW Offense. This game reminded me so much of the UMD game last year it wasn't even funny. They came out playing flat, the play calling was good - the players just didn't execute. And the receivers couldn't catch a cold! I've heard some people suggest that if Blake Christopher was the QB, the game would have been different. There is the possibility that the intangibles that he brings would have been enough of a spark to get the rest of the team to not be playing so flat - but I don't really see that happening.  BC can't make a receiver catch a ball that bounces off of their hands, any more than Trevor Adams can. NW seemed to play just like they did last week versus MoSo, but this week their opponent was obviously better than last week.

     Prior to the game last week, I was speaking to one of the players who gave me a great quote: Our coaches are great. They do all the hard stuff. They come up with a great game plan, we just have to go out and execute it. If we do, we win. Well, I think its safe to say that the team did not execute on Saturday. I think that the main problem against MoWest was the execution of the receivers. I don't know how many balls bounced off of their hands. Those things can't happen when you play good teams. I think its safe to say that Shaw certainly wasn't 100% and Soy is still hampered out there. It really does amaze me what taking those two out of the equation does to this office. I said last week that we needed somebody to step up, and I think Mosely & Pierce did just that. Mosely only had 1 reception, but it was a deep ball. Taylor Pierce got a couple of balls thrown to him as well. But overall, I'm willing to bet that there will be a lot of receiving drills done this week! Rushing wasn't bad at all, in fact, I wasn't that impressed with "Murders Row" at all, NW averaged 5.2 yards per rush. MoWest did a great job of not giving NW a lot of opportunities to do something with the ball - they definitely won the battle of the time clock, by almost a 2:1 ratio. I think the biggest thing to me was NW's horrid 3rd down conversions - they were only 2/8. In the PSU game, they were 3/10. To me, there is no doubt that plays a huge factor in why NW lost those two games.

     Defensively, I really don't have many complaints. NW was able to hold MoWest to below their season average. The NW D has given up an average of 348.2 yards per game, and NW gave up 348 yards. NW was able to limit their #1 RB (Michael Hill) to only 81 yards on 30 attempts (2.7 avg). What killed NW was the scrambling ability of Jerry's kid - who managed to get 106 yards rushing; granted 51 of which were on 1 play (where there was a massive hold/block in the back - but that is a completely different rant that I won't get into here.) Once the D started to put a spy on Jerrys Kid, that pretty much took that option away from them. NW's tackling on the line has been suspect all year. MoWest took advantage of that in combination with NW's over pursuit! The biggest advantage that MoWest had was their kicker - Greg Zuerlein (from UNO). I said before the game that if it comes down to a FG, MoWest has the definite advantage. The shortest one he made was a 37 yarder into the 25mph wind (which would have been good for a lot more), not to mention the 53 and 58 yarders that he made later. I think the guy is definitely the best kicker in D2 this year, and may very well be the best at all levels. I have no doubt that he will be kicking on Sundays next year somewhere.

This Week’s Match up:

     With the loss last week, NW has basically made the playoffs start one week sooner. If NW loses this week, they are done for the year. If everything stays the same as it is right now, the Bearcats will be getting their revenge against Pitt State in the first week. If NW wins that game, they will travel to Washburn and play them again. But first and foremost, the Bearcats need to take care of business against Emporia State. Two weeks ago at this time, I would have never questioned this game. But the way that NW has played the last two weeks, nothing is for certain. Do I think NW can beat them, absolutely. Do I think NW could lose – anything can happen, especially if they play like they did the last two weeks. If you remember last year, the Hornets hung around point for point with NW until the 4^th quarter – where NW pulled away by 2 touchdowns.

     So I’ve been pouring over these stats sheets for the past couple of days to figure out what I can about Emporia. And it really doesn’t tell me much. Emporia is literally ranked 4, 5, or 6 in every statistical category in the MIAA. With the exception of turnovers; they have the best turnover margin in the country – they are +18 on the year (15 fumbles & 20 interceptions.) That is an amazing fact. The Bearcat O is going to have to take care of the ball. Despite having those 20 interceptions, the Hornets don’t have the greatest of pass D. In fact, they are second to last in the conference – averaging giving up 243.5 passing yards per game. Their rushing D is a little better giving up almost 150 yards per game. If NW comes out and doesn’t play like they have in the last two weeks, they will walk all over Emporia. If they don’t, it won’t be a fun day.

     Emporia is an extremely balanced team. They are the only other team in the MIAA that has over 2000 yards passing and rushing. Emporia is averaging 202 yards rushing per game, and 239 yards passing.  The Hornets don’t really have a primary back, they have a committee approach, they have three backs with over 80 carries (and their QB has 90) on the season. Emporia definitely doesn’t have any primary receiver. They do a great job of spreading the ball around. None of their receivers have more than 43 receptions on the year, yet they have 7 that have 17 or more. Northwest is going to have to be on their toes in this game.

     Overall, I think NW is going to win this game. It doesn’t hurt that NW’s Secondary/Special Teams coach, Ken Gordon, was Emporia’s Defensive Coordinator the past 4 years. So my guess is that he will definitely have some good information to add to the scouting. My prediction: NW 59 ESU 21.

Interesting Facts/Statistics:  

• The last time NW & PSU both lost on the same day was Sep 18, 1993. NW lost to MoWest, PSU lost to MoSo.